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§Sentiment: what people are saying, as one number
SD reads price. Sentiment reads people: the analysts who cover a
company and the headlines written about it. It is folded into portfolio
selection as a modest tie-breaker, not as a driver, for one honest
reason: there is no free historical archive of headlines or analyst
revisions, so unlike SD it cannot be backtested here. Small weight, clear
label, easy to switch off (SENTIMENT_WEIGHT=0).
Four signals, each squeezed into [-1, 1]:
| Signal | Source | Idea |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst tilt | Nasdaq consensus (buy / hold / sell counts) | (buys − sells) ÷ analysts |
| Revision momentum | Nasdaq monthly consensus history | is the buy share rising over 3 months? |
| Target upside | Nasdaq mean price target | tanh(upside ÷ 25%); targets run optimistic, so lightly weighted |
| Headline tone | Yahoo Finance RSS (recent headlines) | finance word lists: “beats”, “upgrade” vs “miss”, “probe” |
raw = 0.35·tilt + 0.25·revision + 0.15·upside + 0.25·news
score = 0.5 + 0.5 · raw · confidence (confidence grows with coverage)A stock nobody covers lands at 0.5, neutral, rather than being punished or rewarded for silence.